Enersys (ENS)
EnerSys provides various stored energy solutions for industrial applications globally. The company is headquartered in Reading, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.67% per annum.
- ENS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $109.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.53 (12.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.08% per annum.
- ENS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.57 (14.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: September 25, 2023
a = 2.8897
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0862
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0862) – 1
= 41.18%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8897 + 0.0012 × 987 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.2064)
= $67.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8897 + 0.0012 × 987 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(3.8615)
= $47.54
September 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8897 + 0.0012 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.8231)
= $124.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8897 + 0.0012 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.4782)
= $88.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.67% per annum.
- ENS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $109.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.53 (12.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 5.1642
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.22%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1642 + -0.0004 × 1,396 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.7323)
= $113.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1642 + -0.0004 × 1,396 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.5235)
= $92.16
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1642 + -0.0004 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.5963)
= $99.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1642 + -0.0004 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.3875)
= $80.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.08% per annum.
- ENS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.57 (14.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.