Ametek Inc (AME)
AMETEK, Inc. is an American global manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices with a headquarters in the United States and over 220 manufacturing sites worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AME price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $168.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.73% per annum.
- AME price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 6.4233
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.84%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4233 + -0.0007 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.2478)
= $190.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4233 + -0.0007 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.1723)
= $176.32
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4233 + -0.0007 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.1455)
= $171.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4233 + -0.0007 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.0700)
= $159.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AME price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $168.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.9979
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.94%
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9979 + 0.0001 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.1601)
= $174.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9979 + 0.0001 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.0930)
= $162.87
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9979 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.1663)
= $175.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9979 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.0992)
= $163.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.73% per annum.
- AME price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.