Vicor Corporation (VICR)
Vicor Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets modular power components and power systems to convert electrical power in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.85% per annum.
- VICR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3,903.93 (99.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.06% per annum.
- VICR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VICR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: November 19, 2021
a = 2.2856
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0260
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 234.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0260) – 1
= 10.95%
June 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2856 + 0.0033 × 679 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.5857)
= $98.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2856 + 0.0033 × 679 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.4818)
= $88.40
November 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2856 + 0.0033 × 847 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.1419)
= $171.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2856 + 0.0033 × 847 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(5.0381)
= $154.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 234.85% per annum.
- VICR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.43 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3,903.93 (99.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.5548
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2134) – 1
= 134.77%
June 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5548 + -0.0011 × 679 + 2 × 0.2134)
= Exp(5.2068)
= $182.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5548 + -0.0011 × 679 – 2 × 0.2134)
= Exp(4.3534)
= $77.74
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5548 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2134)
= Exp(3.8983)
= $49.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5548 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2134)
= Exp(3.0449)
= $21.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.06% per annum.
- VICR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.