Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)
Generac Holdings Inc., commonly referred to as Generac, is a Fortune 1000 American manufacturer of backup power generation products for residential, light commercial and industrial markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.51% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $139.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.91 (6.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.75% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2021
End date: March 25, 2024
a = 7.0548
b = -0.0015
s = 0.2526
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2526) – 1
= 174.63%
February 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0548 + -0.0015 × 643 + 2 × 0.2526)
= Exp(6.6152)
= $746.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0548 + -0.0015 × 643 – 2 × 0.2526)
= Exp(5.6050)
= $271.77
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0548 + -0.0015 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.2526)
= Exp(4.9432)
= $140.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0548 + -0.0015 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.2526)
= Exp(3.9330)
= $51.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.51% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $139.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.91 (6.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.3504
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1095
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1095) – 1
= 54.98%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y868)
= Exp(a + b × X868 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3504 + 0.0003 × 1,258 + 2 × 0.1095)
= Exp(4.8902)
= $132.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y868)
= Exp(a + b × X868 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3504 + 0.0003 × 1,258 – 2 × 0.1095)
= Exp(4.4520)
= $85.80
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3504 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1095)
= Exp(5.0350)
= $153.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3504 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1095)
= Exp(4.5968)
= $99.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.75% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.