Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)
Generac Holdings Inc., commonly referred to as Generac, is a Fortune 1000 American manufacturer of backup power generation products for residential, light commercial and industrial markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.37% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $152.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $55.57 (57.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 7.1149
b = -0.0017
s = 0.2435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2435) – 1
= 164.89%
February 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1149 + -0.0017 × 566 + 2 × 0.2435)
= Exp(6.6643)
= $783.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1149 + -0.0017 × 566 – 2 × 0.2435)
= Exp(5.6901)
= $295.94
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1149 + -0.0017 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.2435)
= Exp(4.9712)
= $144.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1149 + -0.0017 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.2435)
= Exp(3.9971)
= $54.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.37% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $152.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $55.57 (57.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1760
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1113
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1113) – 1
= 56.11%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1760 + 0.0004 × 1,181 + 2 × 0.1113)
= Exp(4.8655)
= $129.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1760 + 0.0004 × 1,181 – 2 × 0.1113)
= Exp(4.4202)
= $83.11
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1760 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1113)
= Exp(5.1205)
= $167.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1760 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1113)
= Exp(4.6751)
= $107.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.