Stock Price Trends

Emerson Electric Company (EMR)

Emerson Electric Co. is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Ferguson, Missouri. The Fortune 500 company manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.31% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of December 24, 2025 was $136.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.91% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of December 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.97 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 3.8514

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0574

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.80%

February 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8514 + 0.0006 × 772 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.4602)
= $86.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8514 + 0.0006 × 772 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.2307)
= $68.76

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8514 + 0.0006 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.9407)
= $139.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8514 + 0.0006 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.7112)
= $111.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.31% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of December 24, 2025 was $136.30 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2025
End date: December 2, 2025

a = 5.8263

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0297

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.62%

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8263 + -0.0005 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.9955)
= $147.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8263 + -0.0005 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.8767)
= $131.19

December 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8263 + -0.0005 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.9122)
= $135.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8263 + -0.0005 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.7934)
= $120.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.91% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of December 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.97 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.