Emerson Electric Company (EMR)
Emerson Electric Co. is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Ferguson, Missouri. The Fortune 500 company manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.08% per annum.
- EMR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $112.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.86 (22.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.96% per annum.
- EMR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: July 10, 2023
a = 4.5504
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0628
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0628) – 1
= 28.54%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5504 + -0.0001 × 637 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.6214)
= $101.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5504 + -0.0001 × 637 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.3703)
= $79.07
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5504 + -0.0001 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.5455)
= $94.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5504 + -0.0001 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.2944)
= $73.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.08% per annum.
- EMR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $112.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.86 (22.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.4110
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0521
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0521) – 1
= 23.17%
February 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4110 + 0.0007 × 1,371 + 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(4.4707)
= $87.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4110 + 0.0007 × 1,371 – 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(4.2623)
= $70.97
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4110 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(4.7878)
= $120.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4110 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(4.5794)
= $97.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.96% per annum.
- EMR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.