Stock Price Trends

Sensata Technologies Holding NV (ST)

Sensata Technologies Holding plc, develops, manufactures and sells sensors, sensor-based solutions, controls and other products in America, Europe, Asia and internationally. The company is headquartered in Attleboro, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.70% per annum.
  • ST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.58% per annum.
  • ST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 11, 2021
End date: April 29, 2024

a = 4.3918

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0888

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0888) – 1
= 42.63%

February 11, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3918 + -0.0005 × 566 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.2860)
= $72.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y390)
= Exp(a + b × X390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3918 + -0.0005 × 566 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.9309)
= $50.95

April 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3918 + -0.0005 × 1,739 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.6987)
= $40.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3918 + -0.0005 × 1,739 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.3436)
= $28.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.70% per annum.
  • ST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 2.1760

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0556

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.93%

October 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1760 + 0.0008 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.5815)
= $35.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1760 + 0.0008 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.3589)
= $28.76

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1760 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.8083)
= $45.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1760 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.5858)
= $36.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.58% per annum.
  • ST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.