Stock Price Trends

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)

alarm.com is the leading platform solution for the connected home and business. millions of people depend on alarm.com's technology to monitor and control their property from anywhere. centered on security and remote monitoring, our platform addresses a wide range of market needs and enables application-based control for a growing variety of internet of things (iot) devices. our security, video monitoring, intelligent automation and energy management solutions are available through our network of thousands of professional service providers in north america and around the globe. alarm.com's common stock is traded on the nasdaq under the ticker symbol alrm. alarm.com earned the top workplace™ award for its employee culture and the meaningful work we do every day to develop and bring to market new technology that will make millions of people safer and help them use energy more efficiently. we’re seeking those who are passionate about creating change through technology and who want to make

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.26% per annum.
  • ALRM price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $69.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.71 (51.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.76% per annum.
  • ALRM price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (1.14%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

December 15, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

July 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.26% per annum.
  • ALRM price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $69.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.71 (51.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

November 17, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.76% per annum.
  • ALRM price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (1.14%).