Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is a leading provider of cloud-based solutions that empower smart residential and commercial properties across the United States and internationally. Headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, the company specializes in innovative technology that enhances security, automation, and energy management for both homeowners and businesses. With a robust portfolio of services and a commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions, Alarm.com is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for smart home and business technologies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.70% per annum.
- ALRM price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $46.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.59 (44.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.38% per annum.
- ALRM price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: August 8, 2024
a = 3.5170
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0730
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0730) – 1
= 33.92%
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y410)
= Exp(a + b × X410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5170 + 0.0006 × 591 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.0074)
= $55.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y410)
= Exp(a + b × X410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5170 + 0.0006 × 591 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(3.7153)
= $41.07
August 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5170 + 0.0006 × 1,241 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.3861)
= $80.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5170 + 0.0006 × 1,241 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(4.0940)
= $59.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.70% per annum.
- ALRM price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $46.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.59 (44.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2024
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 4.7201
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0637
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.01%
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y728)
= Exp(a + b × X728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7201 + -0.0005 × 1,057 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.3639)
= $78.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y728)
= Exp(a + b × X728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7201 + -0.0005 × 1,057 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.1092)
= $60.90
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7201 + -0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.0135)
= $55.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7201 + -0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(3.7588)
= $42.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.38% per annum.
- ALRM price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.