Stock Price Trends

DigitalOcean Holdings Inc (DOCN)

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud computing platform that provides platform infrastructure and tools for developers, startups, and small and medium-sized businesses in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.54% per annum.
  • DOCN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.70% per annum.
  • DOCN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.53 (5.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.2283

b = 0.0003

s = 0.1620

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1620) – 1
= 91.17%

November 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2283 + 0.0003 × 587 + 2 × 0.1620)
= Exp(3.7278)
= $41.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2283 + 0.0003 × 587 – 2 × 0.1620)
= Exp(3.0799)
= $21.76

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2283 + 0.0003 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.1620)
= Exp(3.9920)
= $54.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2283 + 0.0003 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.1620)
= Exp(3.3440)
= $28.33

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.54% per annum.
  • DOCN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 14.5886

b = -0.0076

s = 0.0594

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0076) – 1
= -93.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0594) – 1
= 26.81%

February 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.5886 + -0.0076 × 1,415 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.9918)
= $54.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y973)
= Exp(a + b × X973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.5886 + -0.0076 × 1,415 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.7542)
= $42.70

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.5886 + -0.0076 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.4162)
= $30.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.5886 + -0.0076 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.1787)
= $24.02

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.70% per annum.
  • DOCN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.53 (5.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.