Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc., often called Freeport, is an American mining company based in the Freeport-McMoRan Center, in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.14% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $50.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.40 (0.79%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 579.33% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 3.5009
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1294) – 1
= 67.79%
February 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5009 + 0.0001 × 648 + 2 × 0.1294)
= Exp(3.8145)
= $45.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5009 + 0.0001 × 648 – 2 × 0.1294)
= Exp(3.2970)
= $27.03
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5009 + 0.0001 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.1294)
= Exp(3.9116)
= $49.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5009 + 0.0001 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.1294)
= Exp(3.3940)
= $29.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.14% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $50.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.40 (0.79%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024
a = -5.5953
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 579.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.78%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5953 + 0.0052 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.6429)
= $38.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5953 + 0.0052 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.4964)
= $33.00
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5953 + 0.0052 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.0156)
= $55.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5953 + 0.0052 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.8691)
= $47.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 579.33% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.