MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)
MGIC Investment Corporation offers private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services to lenders and government-sponsored entities in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.86% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $28.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (3.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.25% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: December 12, 2024
a = 1.6055
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0439
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.19%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6055 + 0.0010 × 812 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.5177)
= $12.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6055 + 0.0010 × 812 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.3421)
= $10.40
December 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6055 + 0.0010 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.3421)
= $28.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6055 + 0.0010 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.1665)
= $23.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.86% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $28.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (3.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: May 1, 2025
a = 3.2438
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.98%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2438 + 0.0000 × 1,475 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.2626)
= $26.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2438 + 0.0000 × 1,475 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.1230)
= $22.72
May 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2438 + 0.0000 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.2526)
= $25.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2438 + 0.0000 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.1130)
= $22.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.25% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.40 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.