Stock Price Trends

Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) is a leading distributor of food and food-related products in the United States, serving a diverse customer base that includes restaurants, schools, and healthcare facilities. Headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, the company specializes in innovative supply chain solutions and has a robust portfolio of over 250,000 products, ranging from proteins and dairy to pantry items and kitchen supplies. With a commitment to quality and customer service, PFGC is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the dynamic food service industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.36% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $94.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.75 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 245.78% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of February 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFGC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 22, 2025
End date: January 13, 2026

a = 6.7286

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0208

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.66%

August 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7286 + -0.0012 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.7139)
= $111.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7286 + -0.0012 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.6308)
= $102.60

January 13, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7286 + -0.0012 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.5356)
= $93.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7286 + -0.0012 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.4525)
= $85.84

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.36% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of February 2, 2026 was $94.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.75 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 30, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026

a = -1.6119

b = 0.0034

s = 0.0243

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 245.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.20%

December 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6119 + 0.0034 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.5243)
= $92.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6119 + 0.0034 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.4271)
= $83.69

January 30, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6119 + 0.0034 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.6297)
= $102.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6119 + 0.0034 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.5325)
= $92.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 245.78% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of February 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.