Stock Price Trends

Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)

Performance Food Group Company, markets and distributes food and food-related products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.80% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $79.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 326.78% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFGC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 6.5393

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0376

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.23%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5393 + -0.0012 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5891)
= $98.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5393 + -0.0012 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.4388)
= $84.67

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5393 + -0.0012 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.4058)
= $81.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5393 + -0.0012 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.2554)
= $70.49

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.80% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $79.57 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = -2.8727

b = 0.0040

s = 0.0225

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 326.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0225) – 1
= 9.41%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8727 + 0.0040 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.3324)
= $76.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8727 + 0.0040 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.2424)
= $69.58

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8727 + 0.0040 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.4278)
= $83.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8727 + 0.0040 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.3378)
= $76.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 326.78% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.