Stock Price Trends

Performance Food Group Co (PFGC)

Performance Food Group Company, markets and distributes food and food-related products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.86% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $98.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.53% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of August 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PFGC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2025
End date: August 18, 2025

a = 1.0999

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0335

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.34%

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0999 + 0.0019 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.3692)
= $78.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0999 + 0.0019 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.2352)
= $69.08

August 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0999 + 0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.6791)
= $107.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0999 + 0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.5451)
= $94.17

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.86% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $98.77 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 16, 2025
End date: August 18, 2025

a = 4.9318

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0126

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.17%

July 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9318 + -0.0002 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6255)
= $102.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9318 + -0.0002 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.5751)
= $97.04

August 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9318 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.6194)
= $101.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9318 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(4.5690)
= $96.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.53% per annum.
  • PFGC price at the close of August 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.