Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)
The Dow Jones Utility Average aims to represent the stock performance of large, well-known U.S. companies within the utilities industry.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.84% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 17, 2024 was 951.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by 48.44 points (5.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 247.60% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 7.1867
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.75%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1867 + -0.0003 × 1,018 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(7.0102)
= 1,107.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1867 + -0.0003 × 1,018 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.8468)
= 940.82
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1867 + -0.0003 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.8128)
= 909.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1867 + -0.0003 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.6494)
= 772.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.84% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 17, 2024 was 951.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by 48.44 points (5.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 0.6377
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0072
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 247.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0072) – 1
= 2.92%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6377 + 0.0034 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0072)
= Exp(6.7758)
= 876.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6377 + 0.0034 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0072)
= Exp(6.7469)
= 851.46
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6377 + 0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0072)
= Exp(6.8782)
= 970.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6377 + 0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0072)
= Exp(6.8493)
= 943.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 247.60% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.