Stock Price Trends

Russell 1000 Index

The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index and includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 93% of the Russell 3000 Index, as of the most recent reconstitution. The Russell 1000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap segment and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are included.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.87% per annum.
  • Russell 1000 Index at the close of May 17, 2024 was 2,903.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.11% per annum.
  • Russell 1000 Index at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of Russell 1000 Index
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024

a = 6.9547

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.46%

September 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9547 + 0.0005 × 1,220 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(7.6788)
= 2,162.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y842)
= Exp(a + b × X842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9547 + 0.0005 × 1,220 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(7.5525)
= 1,905.53

May 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9547 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(8.0060)
= 2,998.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9547 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(7.8798)
= 2,643.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.87% per annum.
  • Russell 1000 Index at the close of May 17, 2024 was 2,903.33 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024

a = 6.1969

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0237

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.96%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1969 + 0.0010 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(7.8008)
= 2,442.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1969 + 0.0010 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(7.7059)
= 2,221.37

May 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1969 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(8.0355)
= 3,088.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1969 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(7.9406)
= 2,808.96

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.11% per annum.
  • Russell 1000 Index at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.