Stock Price Trends

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)

ADTRAN, Inc. is a provider of telecommunications networking equipment and internetworking products. Its headquarters are in Huntsville, Alabama. The company is ISO 9001 and TL9000 certified.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.53% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $5.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2022
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 6.5747

b = -0.0027

s = 0.1469

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1469) – 1
= 79.98%

July 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.1469)
= Exp(3.5548)
= $34.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.1469)
= Exp(2.9671)
= $19.44

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1469)
= Exp(1.9624)
= $7.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1469)
= Exp(1.3747)
= $3.95

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.53% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $5.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = -0.7652

b = 0.0015

s = 0.1007

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1007) – 1
= 49.62%

November 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(1.9685)
= $7.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(1.5656)
= $4.79

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(2.1389)
= $8.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(1.7360)
= $5.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.