# ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)

ADTRAN, Inc. is a provider of telecommunications networking equipment and internetworking products. Its headquarters are in Huntsville, Alabama. The company is ISO 9001 and TL9000 certified.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.53% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $5.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ADTN price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2022

End date: March 1, 2024

a = 6.5747

b = -0.0027

s = 0.1469

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1

= -62.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1469) – 1

= 79.98%

#### July 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{850})

= Exp(a + b × X_{850} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.1469)

= Exp(3.5548)

= $34.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{850})

= Exp(a + b × X_{850} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.1469)

= Exp(2.9671)

= $19.44

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1469)

= Exp(1.9624)

= $7.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.5747 + -0.0027 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1469)

= Exp(1.3747)

= $3.95

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.53% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $5.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: November 7, 2023

End date: March 1, 2024

a = -0.7652

b = 0.0015

s = 0.1007

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1

= 71.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1007) – 1

= 49.62%

#### November 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,180})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,180} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.1007)

= Exp(1.9685)

= $7.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,180})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,180} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.1007)

= Exp(1.5656)

= $4.79

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1007)

= Exp(2.1389)

= $8.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.7652 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1007)

= Exp(1.7360)

= $5.67

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.