# ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)

ADTRAN, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms and services for service providers, cable / multi-system operators, small and medium-sized businesses, and distributed businesses in the United States, Germany, Mexico, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ADTN price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2022

End date: June 18, 2024

a = 6.0130

b = -0.0025

s = 0.1439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1

= -59.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1439) – 1

= 77.84%

#### July 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{774})

= Exp(a + b × X_{774} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.1439)

= Exp(3.4947)

= $32.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{774})

= Exp(a + b × X_{774} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.1439)

= Exp(2.9190)

= $18.52

#### June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1439)

= Exp(1.7447)

= $5.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1439)

= Exp(1.1690)

= $3.22

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: April 12, 2023

End date: June 18, 2024

a = 4.7485

b = -0.0017

s = 0.1132

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1

= -46.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1132) – 1

= 57.27%

#### April 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{959})

= Exp(a + b × X_{959} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.1132)

= Exp(2.5559)

= $12.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{959})

= Exp(a + b × X_{959} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.1132)

= Exp(2.1032)

= $8.19

#### June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1132)

= Exp(1.8035)

= $6.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1132)

= Exp(1.3507)

= $3.86

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
- ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.