ADTRAN, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms and services for service providers, cable / multi-system operators, small and medium-sized businesses, and distributed businesses in the United States, Germany, Mexico, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
• ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was \$4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
• ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2022
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 6.0130

b = -0.0025

s = 0.1439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.80%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1439) – 1
= 77.84%

#### July 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(3.4947)
= \$32.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(2.9190)
= \$18.52

#### June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(1.7447)
= \$5.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(1.1690)
= \$3.22

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
• ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was \$4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: April 12, 2023
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 4.7485

b = -0.0017

s = 0.1132

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.97%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1132) – 1
= 57.27%

#### April 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(2.5559)
= \$12.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(2.1032)
= \$8.19

#### June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(1.8035)
= \$6.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(1.3507)
= \$3.86

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
• ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.