Stock Price Trends

ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)

ADTRAN, Inc. provides networking and communications platforms and services for service providers, cable / multi-system operators, small and medium-sized businesses, and distributed businesses in the United States, Germany, Mexico, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2022
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 6.0130

b = -0.0025

s = 0.1439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1439) – 1
= 77.84%

July 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(3.4947)
= $32.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(2.9190)
= $18.52

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(1.7447)
= $5.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0130 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1439)
= Exp(1.1690)
= $3.22

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.80% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $4.97 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 12, 2023
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 4.7485

b = -0.0017

s = 0.1132

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1132) – 1
= 57.27%

April 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(2.5559)
= $12.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(2.1032)
= $8.19

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(1.8035)
= $6.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7485 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(1.3507)
= $3.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.97% per annum.
  • ADTN price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.