Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR)
Avis Budget Group, Inc., offers car and truck rental, car sharing and ancillary services to businesses and consumers. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.11% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $101.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.73% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.8709
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1965
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1965) – 1
= 119.44%
November 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8709 + -0.0005 × 830 + 2 × 0.1965)
= Exp(5.8094)
= $333.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y573)
= Exp(a + b × X573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8709 + -0.0005 × 830 – 2 × 0.1965)
= Exp(5.0235)
= $151.95
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8709 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1965)
= Exp(5.2642)
= $193.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8709 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1965)
= Exp(4.4783)
= $88.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.11% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $101.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 8.5425
b = -0.0022
s = 0.1056
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1056) – 1
= 52.59%
June 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5425 + -0.0022 × 1,425 + 2 × 0.1056)
= Exp(5.6596)
= $287.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5425 + -0.0022 × 1,425 – 2 × 0.1056)
= Exp(5.2370)
= $188.11
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5425 + -0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1056)
= Exp(4.7889)
= $120.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5425 + -0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1056)
= Exp(4.3663)
= $78.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.73% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.