Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR)
Avis Budget Group, Inc., offers car and truck rental, car sharing and ancillary services to businesses and consumers. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.98% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was $152.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.85 (28.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,011.57% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $88.07 (36.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2021
End date: May 21, 2025
a = 5.8560
b = -0.0008
s = 0.2114
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2114) – 1
= 132.97%
November 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8560 + -0.0008 × 412 + 2 × 0.2114)
= Exp(5.9394)
= $379.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8560 + -0.0008 × 412 – 2 × 0.2114)
= Exp(5.0936)
= $162.98
May 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8560 + -0.0008 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.2114)
= Exp(4.8714)
= $130.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8560 + -0.0008 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.2114)
= Exp(4.0256)
= $56.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.98% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was $152.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.85 (28.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2025
End date: July 30, 2025
a = -9.5403
b = 0.0084
s = 0.1137
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0084) – 1
= 2,011.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1137) – 1
= 57.61%
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.5403 + 0.0084 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(4.2577)
= $70.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.5403 + 0.0084 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(3.8028)
= $44.83
July 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.5403 + 0.0084 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(5.5446)
= $255.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.5403 + 0.0084 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(5.0896)
= $162.33
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,011.57% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of September 15, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $88.07 (36.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.