Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel and accessories for casual lifestyle and high performance activities. The company is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 92.98% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $109.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.59% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 20, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 17.8160
b = -0.0073
s = 0.0760
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0073) – 1
= -92.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0760) – 1
= 35.51%
December 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8160 + -0.0073 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.6247)
= $277.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8160 + -0.0073 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(5.3208)
= $204.55
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8160 + -0.0073 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.7222)
= $112.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.8160 + -0.0073 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0760)
= Exp(4.4183)
= $82.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 92.98% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $109.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 10.4311
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0397
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.20%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4311 + -0.0032 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(4.8849)
= $132.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4311 + -0.0032 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(4.7262)
= $112.87
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4311 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(4.7199)
= $112.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4311 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(4.5612)
= $95.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.59% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.