Stock Price Trends

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.69% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of December 10, 2025 was $100.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,112.61% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of December 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: December 10, 2025

a = 6.8941

b = -0.0013

s = 0.1605

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1605) – 1
= 90.00%

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8941 + -0.0013 × 1,260 + 2 × 0.1605)
= Exp(5.5817)
= $265.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8941 + -0.0013 × 1,260 – 2 × 0.1605)
= Exp(4.9399)
= $139.76

December 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8941 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1605)
= Exp(4.8494)
= $127.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8941 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1605)
= Exp(4.2075)
= $67.19

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.69% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of December 10, 2025 was $100.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: December 10, 2025

a = -14.0826

b = 0.0102

s = 0.0199

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0102) – 1
= 4,112.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.30%

November 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0826 + 0.0102 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.4249)
= $83.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0826 + 0.0102 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.3452)
= $77.11

December 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0826 + 0.0102 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.6606)
= $105.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.0826 + 0.0102 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(4.5809)
= $97.60

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,112.61% per annum.
  • DECK price at the close of December 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.