Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a leading designer, marketer, and distributor of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily targeting the casual lifestyle and high-performance sectors. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company is renowned for its innovative brands, including UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk, which cater to a diverse consumer base. With a strong commitment to sustainability and product quality, Deckers continues to expand its market presence, leveraging e-commerce and international growth strategies to enhance shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.26% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $86.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.18% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DECK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 6.7964
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1618) – 1
= 91.01%
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7964 + -0.0012 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(5.5657)
= $261.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7964 + -0.0012 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(4.9186)
= $136.80
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7964 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(4.9487)
= $141.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7964 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(4.3016)
= $73.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.26% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $86.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 8.4961
b = -0.0022
s = 0.1476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1476) – 1
= 80.51%
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4961 + -0.0022 × 1,473 + 2 × 0.1476)
= Exp(5.5526)
= $257.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4961 + -0.0022 × 1,473 – 2 × 0.1476)
= Exp(4.9620)
= $142.87
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4961 + -0.0022 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1476)
= Exp(4.7830)
= $119.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4961 + -0.0022 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1476)
= Exp(4.1924)
= $66.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.18% per annum.
- DECK price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.