Crocs Inc (CROX)
Crocs, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women and children. The company is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.53% per annum.
- CROX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $125.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (1.01%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.87% per annum.
- CROX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CROX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 14.2042
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0135) – 1
= 5.53%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2042 + -0.0051 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(5.1083)
= $165.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2042 + -0.0051 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(5.0544)
= $156.71
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2042 + -0.0051 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.8986)
= $134.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2042 + -0.0051 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.8447)
= $127.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.53% per annum.
- CROX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $125.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (1.01%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 3, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 16.8264
b = -0.0066
s = 0.0134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0066) – 1
= -90.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0134) – 1
= 5.52%
July 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.8264 + -0.0066 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.8264 + -0.0066 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.9689)
= $143.87
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.8264 + -0.0066 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.8784)
= $131.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.8264 + -0.0066 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.8246)
= $124.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.87% per annum.
- CROX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.