Garmin Ltd (GRMN)
Garmin Ltd. is an American multinational technology company with headquarters in Olathe, Kansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.38% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $173.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.55% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1253
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0636
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.97%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1253 + 0.0011 × 1,147 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.4713)
= $87.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1253 + 0.0011 × 1,147 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.2168)
= $67.82
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1253 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(5.1928)
= $179.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1253 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.9383)
= $139.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.38% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $173.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.0696
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0447
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.60%
August 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0696 + 0.0017 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.6604)
= $105.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0696 + 0.0017 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.4815)
= $88.36
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0696 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.2515)
= $190.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0696 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.0725)
= $159.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.55% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.