Garmin Ltd (GRMN)
Garmin Ltd. is an American multinational technology company with headquarters in Olathe, Kansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.69% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $200.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.60% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.2795
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.07%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 869 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2795 + 0.0012 × 869 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.4380)
= $84.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 869 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2795 + 0.0012 × 869 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.1675)
= $64.55
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2795 + 0.0012 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.5331)
= $252.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2795 + 0.0012 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.2626)
= $192.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.69% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $200.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.8808
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 21.99%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8808 + -0.0003 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.4729)
= $238.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8808 + -0.0003 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.2742)
= $195.23
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8808 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.4198)
= $225.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8808 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.2211)
= $185.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.60% per annum.
- GRMN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.