MP Materials Corp (MP)
MP Materials Corp. is a leading rare earth materials company based in Las Vegas, Nevada, specializing in the production and supply of critical materials essential for advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-tech applications. As the largest producer of rare earth materials in North America, MP Materials plays a vital role in the domestic supply chain, contributing to national security and the transition to a green economy. The company leverages its proprietary technologies and extensive resource base to deliver high-purity rare earth oxides, positioning itself as a key player in the global market for sustainable materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 278.85% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $58.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.63% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: November 14, 2025
a = -2.4395
b = 0.0036
s = 0.2312
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 278.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2312) – 1
= 152.16%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4395 + 0.0036 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.2312)
= Exp(2.7852)
= $16.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4395 + 0.0036 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.2312)
= Exp(1.8603)
= $6.43
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4395 + 0.0036 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2312)
= Exp(4.6791)
= $107.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4395 + 0.0036 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2312)
= Exp(3.7542)
= $42.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 278.85% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $58.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 13, 2025
End date: November 14, 2025
a = 31.9121
b = -0.0153
s = 0.0859
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0153) – 1
= -99.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0859) – 1
= 40.98%
October 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.9121 + -0.0153 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.6307)
= $102.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.9121 + -0.0153 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.2872)
= $72.77
November 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.9121 + -0.0153 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.1405)
= $62.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.9121 + -0.0153 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(3.7970)
= $44.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.63% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.