MP Materials Corp (MP)
MP Materials Corp. is a leading rare earth materials company based in Las Vegas, Nevada, specializing in the production and supply of critical materials essential for advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-tech applications. As the largest producer of rare earth materials in North America, MP Materials plays a vital role in the domestic supply chain, contributing to national security and the transition to a green economy. The company leverages its proprietary technologies and extensive resource base to deliver high-purity rare earth oxides, positioning itself as a key player in the global market for sustainable materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 272.64% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $61.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.77% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: November 28, 2025
a = -2.3220
b = 0.0036
s = 0.2299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 272.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2299) – 1
= 150.78%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3220 + 0.0036 × 1,291 + 2 × 0.2299)
= Exp(2.7904)
= $16.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y889)
= Exp(a + b × X889 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3220 + 0.0036 × 1,291 – 2 × 0.2299)
= Exp(1.8710)
= $6.49
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3220 + 0.0036 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2299)
= Exp(4.7113)
= $111.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3220 + 0.0036 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2299)
= Exp(3.7919)
= $44.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 272.64% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $61.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2025
End date: November 28, 2025
a = 6.7509
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1093
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1093) – 1
= 54.84%
August 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7509 + -0.0014 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(4.5187)
= $91.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7509 + -0.0014 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(4.0814)
= $59.23
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7509 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(4.3522)
= $77.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7509 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(3.9150)
= $50.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.77% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.