MP Materials Corp (MP)
MP Materials Corp. is a leading rare earth materials company based in Las Vegas, Nevada, specializing in the production and supply of critical materials essential for advanced technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-tech applications. As the largest producer of rare earth materials in North America, MP Materials plays a vital role in the domestic supply chain, contributing to national security and the transition to a green economy. The company leverages its proprietary technologies and extensive resource base to deliver high-purity rare earth oxides, positioning itself as a key player in the global market for sustainable materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 252.53% per annum.
- MP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $53.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.74% per annum.
- MP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: December 26, 2025
a = -1.9944
b = 0.0035
s = 0.2318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 252.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2318) – 1
= 152.77%
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9944 + 0.0035 × 1,260 + 2 × 0.2318)
= Exp(2.8187)
= $16.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9944 + 0.0035 × 1,260 – 2 × 0.2318)
= Exp(1.8914)
= $6.63
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9944 + 0.0035 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2318)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9944 + 0.0035 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2318)
= Exp(3.8348)
= $46.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 252.53% per annum.
- MP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $53.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2025
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 7.6790
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1025
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.66%
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6790 + -0.0020 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(4.5304)
= $92.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6790 + -0.0020 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(4.1206)
= $61.60
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6790 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(4.2450)
= $69.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6790 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.8352)
= $46.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.74% per annum.
- MP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.