Stock Price Trends

Materion Corporation (MTRN)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 204.01% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $122.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.84 (3.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.03% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 28, 2025

a = -0.5924

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0638

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 204.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.07%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5924 + 0.0030 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.3636)
= $78.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5924 + 0.0030 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.1085)
= $60.85

October 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5924 + 0.0030 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.9973)
= $148.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5924 + 0.0030 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.7421)
= $114.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 204.01% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $122.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.84 (3.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 31, 2025
End date: November 28, 2025

a = 2.9305

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0506

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0506) – 1
= 22.43%

July 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9305 + 0.0010 × 1,704 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(4.7993)
= $121.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9305 + 0.0010 × 1,704 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(4.5969)
= $99.18

November 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9305 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(4.9238)
= $137.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9305 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(4.7214)
= $112.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.03% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

MP
MP Materials Corp