Stock Price Trends

Materion Corporation (MTRN)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.94% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $83.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.17% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.9244

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0712

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0712) – 1
= 32.93%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9244 + -0.0008 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(5.0271)
= $152.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9244 + -0.0008 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.7424)
= $114.71

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9244 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.6326)
= $102.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9244 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0712)
= Exp(4.3479)
= $77.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.94% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $83.16 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.8328

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0454

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0454) – 1
= 19.89%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8328 + -0.0025 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.8717)
= $130.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8328 + -0.0025 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.6903)
= $108.89

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8328 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.4447)
= $85.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8328 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.2633)
= $71.04

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.17% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

MP
MP Materials Corp