Materion Corporation (MTRN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.73% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $120.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.48 (13.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 212.43% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 8.1439
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.06%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1439 + -0.0019 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.9782)
= $145.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1439 + -0.0019 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.8643)
= $129.58
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1439 + -0.0019 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.6951)
= $109.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1439 + -0.0019 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.5812)
= $97.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.73% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $120.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.48 (13.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -0.9289
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 212.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.80%
June 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9289 + 0.0031 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(4.6981)
= $109.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9289 + 0.0031 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(4.5866)
= $98.16
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9289 + 0.0031 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(4.8199)
= $123.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9289 + 0.0031 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(4.7083)
= $110.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 212.43% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.