Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)
Newmont Corporation, based in Greenwood Village, Colorado, United States, is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.18% per annum.
- NEM price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $41.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 372.01% per annum.
- NEM price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 4.4991
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1259) – 1
= 65.49%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y479)
= Exp(a + b × X479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4991 + -0.0005 × 694 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(4.3926)
= $80.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y479)
= Exp(a + b × X479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4991 + -0.0005 × 694 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.8889)
= $48.86
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4991 + -0.0005 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.8148)
= $45.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4991 + -0.0005 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(3.3110)
= $27.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.18% per annum.
- NEM price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $41.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024
a = -4.0155
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 372.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.64%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0155 + 0.0043 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.4974)
= $33.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0155 + 0.0043 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.3607)
= $28.81
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0155 + 0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.8162)
= $45.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.0155 + 0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.6796)
= $39.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 372.01% per annum.
- NEM price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.