Royal Gold Inc (RGLD)
Royal Gold, Inc., acquires and manages precious metal flows, royalties and related interests. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.49% per annum.
- RGLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $135.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.20% per annum.
- RGLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.54 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.3348
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0387
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0387) – 1
= 16.75%
February 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3348 + 0.0014 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.7509)
= $115.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3348 + 0.0014 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.5960)
= $99.09
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3348 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.9925)
= $147.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3348 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.8376)
= $126.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.49% per annum.
- RGLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $135.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -2.0309
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0162
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 303.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0162) – 1
= 6.69%
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0309 + 0.0038 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(4.8162)
= $123.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0309 + 0.0038 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(4.7514)
= $115.74
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0309 + 0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(4.9766)
= $144.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0309 + 0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(4.9118)
= $135.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.20% per annum.
- RGLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.54 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.