PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is an American company operating an online payments system in the majority of countries that support online money transfers, and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. The company operates as a payment processor for online vendors, auction sites, and many other commercial users, for which it charges a fee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.20% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $64.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.42 (15.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.10% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PYPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2020
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 6.7824
b = -0.0017
s = 0.2163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -47.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2163) – 1
= 137.52%
December 14, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y413)
= Exp(a + b × X413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7824 + -0.0017 × 598 + 2 × 0.2163)
= Exp(6.1685)
= $477.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y413)
= Exp(a + b × X413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7824 + -0.0017 × 598 – 2 × 0.2163)
= Exp(5.3034)
= $201.02
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7824 + -0.0017 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.2163)
= Exp(4.2558)
= $70.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7824 + -0.0017 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.2163)
= Exp(3.3907)
= $29.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.20% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $64.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.42 (15.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2022
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 5.1588
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0923
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0923) – 1
= 44.68%
April 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1588 + -0.0006 × 1,090 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(4.6732)
= $107.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1588 + -0.0006 × 1,090 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(4.3039)
= $73.98
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1588 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(4.2207)
= $68.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1588 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(3.8513)
= $47.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.10% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.