PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is an American company operating an online payments system in the majority of countries that support online money transfers, and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. The company operates as a payment processor for online vendors, auction sites, and many other commercial users, for which it charges a fee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $79.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (1.49%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 233.72% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PYPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: October 4, 2024
a = 3.1785
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0595
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0595) – 1
= 26.87%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1785 + 0.0006 × 1,445 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(4.1386)
= $62.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1785 + 0.0006 × 1,445 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(3.9007)
= $49.44
October 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1785 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(4.3592)
= $78.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1785 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(4.1213)
= $61.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $79.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (1.49%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2024
End date: October 4, 2024
a = -1.6582
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 233.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.54%
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6582 + 0.0033 × 1,724 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.1019)
= $60.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6582 + 0.0033 × 1,724 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.9661)
= $52.78
October 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6582 + 0.0033 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.4321)
= $84.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6582 + 0.0033 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.2963)
= $73.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 233.72% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.