Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)
Shift4 Payments, Inc. is a leading provider of integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States, headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania. The company specializes in delivering innovative services that streamline transactions for various sectors including hospitality, retail, and e-commerce. With a strong focus on enhancing customer experiences through data-driven insights and advanced security features, Shift4 Payments aims to simplify payment operations while driving growth for its clients. Its robust platform supports a wide range of payment options, positioning the company as a critical player in the evolving digital payment landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.21% per annum.
- FOUR price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $66.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.55 (21.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.08% per annum.
- FOUR price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FOUR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: August 4, 2025
a = 3.3367
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1465) – 1
= 79.67%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3367 + 0.0008 × 542 + 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(4.0443)
= $57.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3367 + 0.0008 × 542 – 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(3.4584)
= $31.77
August 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3367 + 0.0008 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(4.9524)
= $141.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3367 + 0.0008 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(4.3665)
= $78.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.21% per annum.
- FOUR price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $66.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.55 (21.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 3, 2025
End date: November 7, 2025
a = 10.4449
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.11%
July 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4449 + -0.0034 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.7729)
= $118.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4449 + -0.0034 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.5814)
= $97.65
November 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4449 + -0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.3413)
= $76.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4449 + -0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.1497)
= $63.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.08% per annum.
- FOUR price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.