Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a technology company and payment processing service for the financial services industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.78% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $167.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.06 (12.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.37% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JKHY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 5.6860
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.33%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6860 + -0.0004 × 949 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.3910)
= $219.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6860 + -0.0004 × 949 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.1494)
= $172.32
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6860 + -0.0004 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.1110)
= $165.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6860 + -0.0004 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(4.8694)
= $130.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.78% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $167.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.06 (12.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.6840
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0484
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0484) – 1
= 21.38%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6840 + 0.0002 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.1056)
= $164.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6840 + 0.0002 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.9118)
= $135.89
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6840 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.2291)
= $186.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6840 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.0353)
= $153.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.37% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.