Stock Price Trends

Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a technology company and payment processing service for the financial services industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.61% per annum.
  • JKHY price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $159.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.68% per annum.
  • JKHY price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JKHY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 16, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025

a = 7.4275

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0224

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%

May 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4275 + -0.0013 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.2740)
= $195.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4275 + -0.0013 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.1844)
= $178.46

September 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4275 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.1138)
= $166.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4275 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.0241)
= $152.04

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.61% per annum.
  • JKHY price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $159.78 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025

a = 5.1650

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0107

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0107) – 1
= 4.37%

August 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1650 + 0.0000 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0107)
= Exp(5.1037)
= $164.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1650 + 0.0000 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0107)
= Exp(5.0610)
= $157.74

September 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1650 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0107)
= Exp(5.1019)
= $164.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1650 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0107)
= Exp(5.0591)
= $157.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.68% per annum.
  • JKHY price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.