Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a technology company and payment processing service for the financial services industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.68% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $173.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.03% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JKHY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 4.7343
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.07%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7343 + 0.0003 × 1,044 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.0858)
= $161.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7343 + 0.0003 × 1,044 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.9112)
= $135.81
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7343 + 0.0003 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.2771)
= $195.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7343 + 0.0003 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.1026)
= $164.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.68% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $173.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.4606
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.79%
September 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4606 + -0.0002 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.2374)
= $188.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4606 + -0.0002 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.1350)
= $169.86
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4606 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.2010)
= $181.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4606 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(5.0985)
= $163.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.03% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.