Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a technology company and payment processing service for the financial services industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.78% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $165.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.47 (6.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.17% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JKHY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 5.7234
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.33%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7234 + -0.0004 × 1,027 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.3943)
= $220.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7234 + -0.0004 × 1,027 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.1526)
= $172.89
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7234 + -0.0004 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.1143)
= $166.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7234 + -0.0004 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(4.8727)
= $130.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.78% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $165.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.47 (6.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.5986
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.83%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5986 + 0.0003 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.1079)
= $165.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5986 + 0.0003 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(4.9023)
= $134.59
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5986 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.2312)
= $187.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5986 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.0256)
= $152.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.17% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.