Stock Price Trends

Corpay Inc (CPAY)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $328.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.88 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 4.4937

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0690

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0690) – 1
= 31.78%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 918 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.3504)
= $210.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 918 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.0744)
= $159.88

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(6.0535)
= $425.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.7775)
= $322.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $328.42 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 21, 2024
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 3.3702

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0484

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0484) – 1
= 21.38%

May 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.6633)
= $288.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.4695)
= $237.34

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(6.0789)
= $436.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.8852)
= $359.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.88 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.