Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $328.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.88 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 4.4937
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0690
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0690) – 1
= 31.78%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 918 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.3504)
= $210.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 918 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.0744)
= $159.88
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(6.0535)
= $425.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4937 + 0.0008 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0690)
= Exp(5.7775)
= $322.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $328.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2024
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 3.3702
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0484
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0484) – 1
= 21.38%
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.6633)
= $288.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.4695)
= $237.34
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(6.0789)
= $436.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3702 + 0.0014 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(5.8852)
= $359.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of March 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.88 (9.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.