Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $331.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.13% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.2011
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0585
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0585) – 1
= 26.34%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2011 + 0.0009 × 1,075 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.3011)
= $200.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2011 + 0.0009 × 1,075 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.0672)
= $158.73
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2011 + 0.0009 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.8543)
= $348.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2011 + 0.0009 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.6204)
= $276.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $331.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2023
End date: October 3, 2024
a = 4.8828
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.43%
May 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8828 + 0.0005 × 1,306 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.6039)
= $271.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8828 + 0.0005 × 1,306 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.3537)
= $211.38
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8828 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.8398)
= $343.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8828 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.5896)
= $267.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.13% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.