Stock Price Trends

Corpay Inc (CPAY)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $324.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.54 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.92% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 4.5515

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0696

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.11%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y599)
= Exp(a + b × X599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 868 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.3543)
= $211.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y599)
= Exp(a + b × X599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 868 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.0759)
= $160.11

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(6.0653)
= $430.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.7869)
= $325.99

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $324.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.54 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 10.2971

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0458

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.10%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(6.0628)
= $429.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.8796)
= $357.67

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.8173)
= $336.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.6341)
= $279.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.92% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.