Stock Price Trends

Corpay Inc (CPAY)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of January 14, 2026 was $327.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.59 (6.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 172.34% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of January 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: December 9, 2025

a = 6.9190

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0513

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.76%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9190 + -0.0007 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(6.0377)
= $418.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9190 + -0.0007 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.8326)
= $341.24

December 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9190 + -0.0007 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.7561)
= $316.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9190 + -0.0007 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(5.5511)
= $257.51

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of January 14, 2026 was $327.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.59 (6.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: January 14, 2026

a = 0.7906

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0276

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 172.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%

October 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7906 + 0.0027 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.6438)
= $282.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7906 + 0.0027 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.5336)
= $253.04

January 14, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7906 + 0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.8552)
= $349.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7906 + 0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.7449)
= $312.60

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 172.34% per annum.
  • CPAY price at the close of January 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.