Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $324.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.54 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.92% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.5515
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.11%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y599)
= Exp(a + b × X599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 868 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.3543)
= $211.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y599)
= Exp(a + b × X599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 868 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.0759)
= $160.11
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(6.0653)
= $430.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5515 + 0.0008 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.7869)
= $325.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $324.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.54 (2.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 10.2971
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.10%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(6.0628)
= $429.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.8796)
= $357.67
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.8173)
= $336.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2971 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.6341)
= $279.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.92% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.