Evertec Inc (EVTC)
EVERTEC, Inc. participates in the transaction processing business in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.15% per annum.
- EVTC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $37.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.74 (18.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.66% per annum.
- EVTC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EVTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: May 16, 2023
a = 4.1759
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.64%
April 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y483)
= Exp(a + b × X483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1759 + -0.0005 × 701 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.9901)
= $54.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y483)
= Exp(a + b × X483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1759 + -0.0005 × 701 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.6853)
= $39.86
May 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1759 + -0.0005 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.6196)
= $37.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1759 + -0.0005 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.3148)
= $27.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.15% per annum.
- EVTC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $37.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.74 (18.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2022
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 3.0878
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0554
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0554) – 1
= 24.80%
August 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0878 + 0.0003 × 1,190 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(3.5871)
= $36.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0878 + 0.0003 × 1,190 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(3.3656)
= $28.95
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0878 + 0.0003 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(3.7928)
= $44.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0878 + 0.0003 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(3.5713)
= $35.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.66% per annum.
- EVTC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.