Western Union Co (WU)
The Western Union Company is an American worldwide financial services and communications company, headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.87% per annum.
- WU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- WU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (1.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: June 10, 2024
a = 1.5399
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0454) – 1
= 19.91%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5399 + 0.0006 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(2.4049)
= $11.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5399 + 0.0006 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(2.2233)
= $9.24
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5399 + 0.0006 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(2.6753)
= $14.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5399 + 0.0006 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(2.4937)
= $12.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.87% per annum.
- WU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.9909
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0167
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0167) – 1
= 6.93%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9909 + -0.0008 × 1,683 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.6392)
= $14.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9909 + -0.0008 × 1,683 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.5722)
= $13.10
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9909 + -0.0008 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.5339)
= $12.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9909 + -0.0008 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(2.4669)
= $11.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- WU price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (1.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.