Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS)
FIS is an American Fortune 500 company which offers a wide range of financial products and services. Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, FIS employs approximately 63,000 people worldwide. FIS is most known for its development of Financial Technology, or FinTech, and as of Q2 2020 it offers its solutions in three primary segments: Merchant Solutions, Banking Solutions, and Capital Market Solutions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.28% per annum.
- FIS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.92 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.47% per annum.
- FIS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2023
End date: June 24, 2024
a = 1.2202
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.48%
September 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2202 + 0.0018 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.9860)
= $53.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2202 + 0.0018 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(3.8335)
= $46.22
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2202 + 0.0018 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.4601)
= $86.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2202 + 0.0018 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.3076)
= $74.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.28% per annum.
- FIS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.92 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.7631
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0132
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0132) – 1
= 5.43%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7631 + -0.0002 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.3642)
= $78.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7631 + -0.0002 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.3114)
= $74.54
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7631 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.3465)
= $77.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7631 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.2937)
= $73.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.47% per annum.
- FIS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.