Universal Health Services Inc (UHS)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.37% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $213.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.22 (4.00%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UHS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.7680
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.82%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7680 + 0.0014 × 1,478 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.8995)
= $134.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7680 + 0.0014 × 1,478 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.7103)
= $111.09
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7680 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.3763)
= $216.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7680 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.1872)
= $178.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.37% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $213.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.4101
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.59%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4101 + 0.0010 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.0970)
= $163.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4101 + 0.0010 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.9522)
= $141.48
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4101 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.3253)
= $205.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4101 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.1805)
= $177.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.59% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.22 (4.00%).