Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. is a leading operator of behavioral health facilities across the United States and Puerto Rico, specializing in the development and management of inpatient psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes, substance abuse treatment centers, and outpatient services. With its headquarters in Franklin, Tennessee, Acadia is committed to addressing the complex behavioral health and recovery needs of communities through a comprehensive range of high-quality care options. The company leverages its extensive network and expertise to enhance patient outcomes, solidifying its position as a key player in the rapidly evolving mental health care landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.78% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $23.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.69 (31.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69,263.95% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: February 20, 2026
a = 7.2410
b = -0.0026
s = 0.1585
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1585) – 1
= 88.48%
December 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2410 + -0.0026 × 1,016 + 2 × 0.1585)
= Exp(4.9526)
= $141.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2410 + -0.0026 × 1,016 – 2 × 0.1585)
= Exp(4.3187)
= $75.09
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2410 + -0.0026 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.1585)
= Exp(2.9345)
= $18.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2410 + -0.0026 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.1585)
= Exp(2.3006)
= $9.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.78% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $23.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.69 (31.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 28, 2026
End date: March 12, 2026
a = -29.4135
b = 0.0179
s = 0.0726
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0179) – 1
= 69,263.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0726) – 1
= 33.67%
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-29.4135 + 0.0179 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(2.6348)
= $13.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-29.4135 + 0.0179 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(2.3446)
= $10.43
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-29.4135 + 0.0179 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(3.4055)
= $30.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-29.4135 + 0.0179 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(3.1153)
= $22.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69,263.95% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.