Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. develops and operates inpatient psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes, substance abuse facilities, and outpatient behavioral health facilities to serve the behavioral health and recovery needs of the communities in the United States. United States and Puerto Rico. The company is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.66% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.32% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.6060
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0660
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0660) – 1
= 30.21%
July 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y747)
= Exp(a + b × X747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6060 + -0.0002 × 1,082 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.5335)
= $93.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y747)
= Exp(a + b × X747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6060 + -0.0002 × 1,082 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.2695)
= $71.49
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6060 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.3933)
= $80.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6060 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(4.1293)
= $62.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.66% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $66.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 6.9865
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.95%
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9865 + -0.0016 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.5312)
= $92.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9865 + -0.0016 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.3833)
= $80.10
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9865 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.2233)
= $68.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9865 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.0753)
= $58.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.32% per annum.
- ACHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.