Select Medical Holdings (SEM)
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiary, Select Medical Corporation, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.52% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $33.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.28 (92.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.78% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.40 (1.21%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SEM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: January 3, 2023
a = 4.1201
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1121
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1121) – 1
= 56.59%
February 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1201 + -0.0008 × 648 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.8211)
= $45.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y447)
= Exp(a + b × X447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1201 + -0.0008 × 648 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.3726)
= $29.16
January 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1201 + -0.0008 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.2753)
= $26.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1201 + -0.0008 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(2.8268)
= $16.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.52% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $33.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.28 (92.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.9138
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0892
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0892) – 1
= 42.87%
January 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9138 + 0.0002 × 974 + 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(3.3168)
= $27.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 974 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9138 + 0.0002 × 974 – 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(2.9601)
= $19.30
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9138 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(3.5129)
= $33.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9138 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(3.1561)
= $23.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.78% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.40 (1.21%).