Select Medical Holdings (SEM)
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiary, Select Medical Corporation, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.70% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $18.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (5.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.68% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.13 (13.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SEM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.5689
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0378
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.33%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5689 + -0.0015 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(3.1270)
= $22.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5689 + -0.0015 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.9757)
= $19.60
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5689 + -0.0015 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.8676)
= $17.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5689 + -0.0015 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(2.7163)
= $15.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.70% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $18.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (5.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.6646
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0269
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.34%
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6646 + -0.0027 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(3.0464)
= $21.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6646 + -0.0027 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.9389)
= $18.90
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6646 + -0.0027 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.8034)
= $16.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6646 + -0.0027 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.6959)
= $14.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.68% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.13 (13.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.