Select Medical Holdings (SEM)
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiary, Select Medical Corporation, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.17% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 278.16% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SEM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.0124
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0426
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.60%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0124 + 0.0020 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.1535)
= $23.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0124 + 0.0020 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(2.9829)
= $19.75
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0124 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.6930)
= $40.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0124 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.5224)
= $33.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.17% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -2.9935
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 278.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0150) – 1
= 6.18%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9935 + 0.0036 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.5269)
= $34.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9935 + 0.0036 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.4669)
= $32.04
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9935 + 0.0036 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.6908)
= $40.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9935 + 0.0036 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0150)
= Exp(3.6309)
= $37.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 278.16% per annum.
- SEM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.