HCA Holdings Inc (HCA)
HCA Healthcare is an American for-profit operator of health care facilities that was founded in 1968. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and, as of May 2020, owns and operates 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 sites of care, including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics in 21 states and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.07% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $314.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 136.91% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.06 (9.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: January 29, 2024
a = 5.2048
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1107
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1107) – 1
= 55.73%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2048 + 0.0002 × 708 + 2 × 0.1107)
= Exp(5.5768)
= $264.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2048 + 0.0002 × 708 – 2 × 0.1107)
= Exp(5.1339)
= $169.68
January 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2048 + 0.0002 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.1107)
= Exp(5.7936)
= $328.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2048 + 0.0002 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.1107)
= Exp(5.3506)
= $210.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.07% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $314.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: April 5, 2024
a = 1.5938
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 136.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.63%
October 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5938 + 0.0024 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.4698)
= $237.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5938 + 0.0024 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.3598)
= $212.68
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5938 + 0.0024 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.8880)
= $360.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5938 + 0.0024 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.7781)
= $323.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 136.91% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $34.06 (9.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.