National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)
National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, home health programs, and a behavioral health hospital. The company is headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.48% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $100.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.92 (1.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.7266
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0734
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0734) – 1
= 34.10%
February 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7266 + 0.0016 × 1,376 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.0574)
= $57.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7266 + 0.0016 × 1,376 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(3.7639)
= $43.12
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7266 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.7684)
= $117.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7266 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(4.4750)
= $87.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.48% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $100.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.7249
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.02%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7249 + -0.0001 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.6066)
= $100.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7249 + -0.0001 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4842)
= $88.60
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7249 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.5898)
= $98.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7249 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4674)
= $87.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.92 (1.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.