Encompass Health Corp (EHC)
Encompass Health Corporation offers in-home and post-acute health care services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.75% per annum.
- EHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $90.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.78% per annum.
- EHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (2.79%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: June 10, 2024
a = 1.7493
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.99%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7493 + 0.0015 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.1414)
= $62.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7493 + 0.0015 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.0645)
= $58.24
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7493 + 0.0015 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.5115)
= $91.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7493 + 0.0015 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.4346)
= $84.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.75% per annum.
- EHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $90.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 3.9874
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0125
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0125) – 1
= 5.14%
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9874 + 0.0003 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4556)
= $86.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9874 + 0.0003 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4055)
= $81.90
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9874 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4789)
= $88.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9874 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0125)
= Exp(4.4288)
= $83.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.78% per annum.
- EHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (2.79%).