The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)
The Ensign Group, Inc. provides health care services in the post-acute care continuum and other ancillary businesses. The company is headquartered in San Juan Capistrano, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.07% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $136.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $22.52 (19.81%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENSG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2020
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 4.2526
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0695
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.03%
November 13, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2526 + 0.0002 × 476 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.4806)
= $88.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2526 + 0.0002 × 476 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.2027)
= $66.87
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2526 + 0.0002 × 1,571 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.6854)
= $108.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2526 + 0.0002 × 1,571 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.4076)
= $82.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.07% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $136.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $22.52 (19.81%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.7288
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.11%
April 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7288 + 0.0006 × 1,006 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.4445)
= $85.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7288 + 0.0006 × 1,006 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.2205)
= $68.07
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7288 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.9367)
= $139.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7288 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.7126)
= $111.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.49% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.