The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)
The Ensign Group, Inc. provides health care services in the post-acute care continuum and other ancillary businesses. The company is headquartered in San Juan Capistrano, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.98% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $119.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.77 (6.94%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENSG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2020
End date: November 9, 2023
a = 4.2430
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0693
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0693) – 1
= 31.93%
November 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0002 × 546 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.4824)
= $88.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0002 × 546 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.2053)
= $67.04
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0002 × 1,634 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.6835)
= $108.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0002 × 1,634 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.4064)
= $81.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.98% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $119.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.77 (6.94%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.7121
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0565
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0565) – 1
= 25.35%
April 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7121 + 0.0006 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(4.4506)
= $85.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7121 + 0.0006 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(4.2246)
= $68.35
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7121 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(4.8884)
= $132.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7121 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(4.6625)
= $105.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.71% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.