US Physicalrapy Inc (USPH)
US Physical Therapy, Inc. operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide preoperative and postoperative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventive care, injured worker rehabilitation, and neurology-related injuries. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.86% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $106.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.39 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.16% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of USPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 1.8949
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.01%
October 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8949 + 0.0016 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4633)
= $86.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8949 + 0.0016 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.3410)
= $76.78
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8949 + 0.0016 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.7492)
= $115.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8949 + 0.0016 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.6269)
= $102.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.86% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $106.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.39 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 5.6940
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0309
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1
= 13.17%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6940 + -0.0006 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.7386)
= $114.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6940 + -0.0006 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.6149)
= $100.97
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6940 + -0.0006 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.6949)
= $109.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6940 + -0.0006 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.5712)
= $96.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.16% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.