Stock Price Trends

US Physicalrapy Inc (USPH)

US Physical Therapy, Inc. operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide preoperative and postoperative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventive care, injured worker rehabilitation, and neurology-related injuries. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.54% per annum.
  • USPH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $71.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.22% per annum.
  • USPH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.34 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of USPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.6318

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0374

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.15%

November 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6318 + -0.0024 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.6881)
= $108.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6318 + -0.0024 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.5384)
= $93.54

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6318 + -0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.3046)
= $74.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6318 + -0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.1549)
= $63.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.54% per annum.
  • USPH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $71.60 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 10.4170

b = -0.0034

s = 0.0310

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.19%

January 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4170 + -0.0034 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.5832)
= $97.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4170 + -0.0034 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.4593)
= $86.43

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4170 + -0.0034 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.2523)
= $70.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4170 + -0.0034 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.1284)
= $62.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.22% per annum.
  • USPH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.34 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.