Stock Price Trends

Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC)

Tenet Healthcare Corporation is a diversified health services company. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 282.63% per annum.
  • THC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $151.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.46% per annum.
  • THC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.41 (6.62%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: July 3, 2024

a = -1.6404

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0602

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 282.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0602) – 1
= 27.22%

October 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6404 + 0.0037 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(4.1233)
= $61.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6404 + 0.0037 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(3.8826)
= $48.55

July 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6404 + 0.0037 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(5.1013)
= $164.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6404 + 0.0037 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(4.8606)
= $129.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 282.63% per annum.
  • THC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $151.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 4.0230

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0228

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0228) – 1
= 9.55%

May 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0230 + 0.0005 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.9194)
= $136.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0230 + 0.0005 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.8281)
= $124.97

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0230 + 0.0005 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.9559)
= $142.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0230 + 0.0005 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.8646)
= $129.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.46% per annum.
  • THC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.41 (6.62%).