Valaris Ltd (VAL)
Valaris Limited provides offshore contract drilling services in various water depths for the oil and gas industry globally. The company is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.85% per annum.
- VAL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $76.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,351.73% per annum.
- VAL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.1043
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0783
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0783) – 1
= 36.76%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y372)
= Exp(a + b × X372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1043 + 0.0001 × 536 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.3303)
= $75.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y372)
= Exp(a + b × X372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1043 + 0.0001 × 536 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.0172)
= $55.55
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1043 + 0.0001 × 1,110 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.4047)
= $81.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1043 + 0.0001 × 1,110 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(4.0916)
= $59.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.85% per annum.
- VAL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $76.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -7.1848
b = 0.0104
s = 0.0220
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0104) – 1
= 4,351.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0220) – 1
= 9.21%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1848 + 0.0104 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(4.2260)
= $68.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1848 + 0.0104 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(4.1379)
= $62.67
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1848 + 0.0104 × 1,110 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(4.4028)
= $81.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1848 + 0.0104 × 1,110 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(4.3147)
= $74.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,351.73% per annum.
- VAL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.