Helmerich and Payne Inc (HP)
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. provides drilling services and solutions for exploration and production companies. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.80% per annum.
- HP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $38.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.67 (38.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- HP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: February 16, 2023
a = 2.2643
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1591
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1591) – 1
= 89.00%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2643 + 0.0012 × 294 + 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(2.9346)
= $18.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2643 + 0.0012 × 294 – 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(2.2980)
= $9.95
February 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2643 + 0.0012 × 1,368 + 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(4.2203)
= $68.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2643 + 0.0012 × 1,368 – 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(3.5837)
= $36.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.80% per annum.
- HP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $38.49 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.67 (38.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.8406
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1085
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1085) – 1
= 54.34%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8406 + -0.0001 × 1,018 + 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.9297)
= $50.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8406 + -0.0001 × 1,018 – 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.4957)
= $32.97
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8406 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.8284)
= $45.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8406 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.3944)
= $29.80
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- HP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.