AGCO Corporation (AGCO)
AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related spare parts worldwide. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.47% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $85.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.99% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2022
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.2301
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0627
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0627) – 1
= 28.48%
November 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y648)
= Exp(a + b × X648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2301 + -0.0004 × 937 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(4.9841)
= $146.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y648)
= Exp(a + b × X648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 937 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2301 + -0.0004 × 937 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(4.7335)
= $113.70
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2301 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(4.6323)
= $102.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2301 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(4.3817)
= $79.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.47% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $85.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 9.1186
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0455
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.98%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1186 + -0.0026 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.7555)
= $116.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1186 + -0.0026 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.5733)
= $96.87
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1186 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.5027)
= $90.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1186 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.3206)
= $75.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.99% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.