Stock Price Trends

Cabot Corporation (CBT)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.25% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $78.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.14% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 7.8223

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0416

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.09%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8223 + -0.0019 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.8393)
= $126.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8223 + -0.0019 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.6730)
= $107.02

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8223 + -0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.4146)
= $82.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8223 + -0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(4.2484)
= $69.99

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.25% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $78.72 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 19, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 6.6040

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0208

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.70%

December 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6040 + -0.0012 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.5639)
= $95.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6040 + -0.0012 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.4806)
= $88.28

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6040 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.4030)
= $81.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6040 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.3196)
= $75.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.14% per annum.
  • CBT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.