Ashland Global Holdings Inc (ASH)
Ashland Global Holdings Inc. offers specialized chemical solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- ASH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $94.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.23% per annum.
- ASH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.02 (4.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2021
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 4.8338
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.65%
October 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8338 + -0.0002 × 811 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.7964)
= $121.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8338 + -0.0002 × 811 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.4769)
= $87.96
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8338 + -0.0002 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.5873)
= $98.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8338 + -0.0002 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.2678)
= $71.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- ASH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $94.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: June 24, 2024
a = 2.4725
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.77%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4725 + 0.0012 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.3890)
= $80.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4725 + 0.0012 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.2254)
= $68.40
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4725 + 0.0012 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.7166)
= $111.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4725 + 0.0012 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.5531)
= $94.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.23% per annum.
- ASH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.02 (4.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.