Olin Corporation (OLN)
Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Clayton, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.74% per annum.
- OLN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $48.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.92% per annum.
- OLN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.8410
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0956
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0956) – 1
= 46.56%
May 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8410 + 0.0001 × 647 + 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(4.0801)
= $59.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8410 + 0.0001 × 647 – 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(3.6978)
= $40.36
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8410 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(4.1675)
= $64.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8410 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0956)
= Exp(3.7853)
= $44.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.74% per annum.
- OLN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $48.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.7484
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.26%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7484 + -0.0016 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.1480)
= $63.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7484 + -0.0016 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.0059)
= $54.92
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7484 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(3.9261)
= $50.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7484 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(3.7841)
= $44.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.92% per annum.
- OLN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.