CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a North American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, based in Deerfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.45% per annum.
- CF price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $76.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.62% per annum.
- CF price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.8892
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1039
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1039) – 1
= 51.54%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8892 + -0.0003 × 1,018 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.7578)
= $116.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8892 + -0.0003 × 1,018 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.3421)
= $76.87
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8892 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.4893)
= $89.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8892 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.0736)
= $58.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.45% per annum.
- CF price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $76.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.7218
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0607
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.50%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7218 + 0.0004 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.3642)
= $78.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7218 + 0.0004 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.1212)
= $61.63
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7218 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.5253)
= $92.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7218 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.2824)
= $72.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.62% per annum.
- CF price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.