The Mosaic Company (MOS)
The Mosaic Company is a Fortune 500 company based in Tampa, Florida which mines phosphate and potash, and operates through segments such as international distribution and Mosaic Fertilizantes.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $29.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.94% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MOS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 5.0242
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0867
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0867) – 1
= 41.47%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0242 + -0.0009 × 1,030 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(4.2727)
= $71.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0242 + -0.0009 × 1,030 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(3.9258)
= $50.70
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0242 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(3.5579)
= $35.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0242 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(3.2110)
= $24.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $29.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.3684
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.08%
May 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3684 + -0.0005 × 1,457 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.7554)
= $42.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3684 + -0.0005 × 1,457 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.5001)
= $33.12
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3684 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.5678)
= $35.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3684 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.3126)
= $27.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.94% per annum.
- MOS price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.