Corteva Inc (CTVA)
Corteva, Inc. (also known as Corteva Agriscience) is a major American agricultural chemical and seed company that was the agricultural unit of DowDuPont prior to being spun off as an independent public company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.48% per annum.
- CTVA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $55.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.20% per annum.
- CTVA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.2669
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0808
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1
= 38.17%
March 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2669 + -0.0002 × 962 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.2519)
= $70.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2669 + -0.0002 × 962 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.9286)
= $50.83
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2669 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.0936)
= $59.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2669 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.7703)
= $43.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.48% per annum.
- CTVA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $55.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.6498
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0579
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.06%
October 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6498 + 0.0008 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.9487)
= $51.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6498 + 0.0008 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.7171)
= $41.15
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6498 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.1606)
= $64.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6498 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.9290)
= $50.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.20% per annum.
- CTVA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.