Stock Price Trends

Enhabit Inc. (EHAB)

Enhabit, Inc. provides home health and hospice services in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 448.04% per annum.
  • EHAB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $8.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.81 (56.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.83% per annum.
  • EHAB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (1.27%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EHAB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: December 28, 2023

a = -0.1047

b = 0.0047

s = 0.0724

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 448.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0724) – 1
= 33.58%

October 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1047 + 0.0047 × 459 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.1793)
= $8.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1047 + 0.0047 × 459 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(1.8898)
= $6.62

December 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1047 + 0.0047 × 545 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.5802)
= $13.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1047 + 0.0047 × 545 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.2906)
= $9.88

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 448.04% per annum.
  • EHAB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $8.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.81 (56.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024

a = 2.4618

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0825

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.08%

November 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4618 + -0.0003 × 495 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(2.5013)
= $12.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4618 + -0.0003 × 495 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(2.1714)
= $8.77

May 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4618 + -0.0003 × 686 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(2.4529)
= $11.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4618 + -0.0003 × 686 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(2.1230)
= $8.36

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.83% per annum.
  • EHAB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (1.27%).