Four Corners Property Trust Inc (FCPT)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- FCPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $27.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.52 (5.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.77% per annum.
- FCPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2020
End date: June 27, 2024
a = 3.1859
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.57%
November 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1859 + 0.0000 × 470 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.2768)
= $26.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1859 + 0.0000 × 470 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.0815)
= $21.79
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1859 + 0.0000 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.2578)
= $25.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1859 + 0.0000 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.0624)
= $21.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- FCPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $27.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.52 (5.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.2061
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.24%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2061 + 0.0006 × 1,516 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.1421)
= $23.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2061 + 0.0006 × 1,516 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(2.9745)
= $19.58
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2061 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.3152)
= $27.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2061 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(3.1477)
= $23.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.77% per annum.
- FCPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.