Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $108.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.34 (22.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.25% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2020
End date: July 6, 2023
a = 6.3641
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1691) – 1
= 96.68%
December 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3641 + -0.0012 × 570 + 2 × 0.1691)
= Exp(6.0089)
= $407.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3641 + -0.0012 × 570 – 2 × 0.1691)
= Exp(5.3325)
= $206.96
July 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3641 + -0.0012 × 1,508 + 2 × 0.1691)
= Exp(4.8679)
= $130.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3641 + -0.0012 × 1,508 – 2 × 0.1691)
= Exp(4.1915)
= $66.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $108.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.34 (22.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 4.1701
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0989
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0989) – 1
= 48.52%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1701 + 0.0003 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(4.7811)
= $119.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1701 + 0.0003 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(4.3855)
= $80.28
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1701 + 0.0003 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(4.9772)
= $145.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1701 + 0.0003 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(4.5816)
= $97.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.25% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.