Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.75% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $32.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.84% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 3, 2025
a = 8.1451
b = -0.0026
s = 0.1892
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1892) – 1
= 113.18%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1451 + -0.0026 × 1,255 + 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(5.3078)
= $201.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y867)
= Exp(a + b × X867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1451 + -0.0026 × 1,255 – 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(4.5509)
= $94.71
July 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1451 + -0.0026 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(3.8524)
= $47.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1451 + -0.0026 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(3.0954)
= $22.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.75% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $32.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025
a = 12.9818
b = -0.0054
s = 0.1352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -85.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1352) – 1
= 71.77%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9818 + -0.0054 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(4.6678)
= $106.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9818 + -0.0054 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(4.1268)
= $61.98
July 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9818 + -0.0054 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(3.4896)
= $32.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9818 + -0.0054 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(2.9486)
= $19.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.84% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.