Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.15% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $28.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.49 (7.99%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.6763
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1689
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -54.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1689) – 1
= 96.51%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6763 + -0.0021 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.1689)
= Exp(5.2028)
= $181.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6763 + -0.0021 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.1689)
= Exp(4.5272)
= $92.50
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6763 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1689)
= Exp(4.1154)
= $61.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6763 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1689)
= Exp(3.4398)
= $31.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.15% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $28.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.49 (7.99%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 38.7496
b = -0.0194
s = 0.0788
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0194) – 1
= -99.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.03%
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(38.7496 + -0.0194 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.2152)
= $67.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(38.7496 + -0.0194 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.9002)
= $49.41
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(38.7496 + -0.0194 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.4775)
= $32.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(38.7496 + -0.0194 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.1624)
= $23.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.